Weekly Reads #7
Is AI the next Manhattan Project?
Hey everyone,
This week it’s going to be just one read. But it’s massive. A paper written by Leopold Aschenbrenner, ex-OpenAI Superalignment team member (fired due to data leakage), on AGI.
To save you some time below are the key takeaways:
AGI by 2027: Aschenbrenner predicts that AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) will likely emerge by 2027. This is based on the rapid progress from models like GPT-2 to GPT-4, suggesting similar advancements will soon lead to AGI.
Rapid Evolution to ASI: Once AGI appears, it will quickly transform into ASI (Artificial Superintelligence) due to its self-improving capabilities. Hundreds of millions of AGIs could automate AI research, drastically speeding up algorithmic progress.
Geopolitical Stakes: AGI is already a crucial geopolitical resource. Countries are competing and spying on each other to secure access to AGI technologies before their rivals, highlighting its strategic importance.
Trillion-Dollar Infrastructure: In the next five years, we can expect the creation of a unified computing cluster dedicated to AGI development, costing around one trillion dollars to support its computational demands.
Surging AI Investments: Currently, companies spend approximately $100 billion quarterly on AI. By 2030, this annual expenditure is expected to soar to $8 trillion, showing the growing economic significance of AI.
Historical Impact: The advancements in AI are being compared to the Manhattan Project and the Industrial Revolution in terms of their transformative impact on society and global power dynamics.
Security Concerns: Leading AI labs are criticized for neglecting security. There's a significant risk of AGI secrets being stolen by state actors, particularly from China, which could use these insights to gain an edge in the AI race.
Superalignment Challenge: Controlling AI systems that surpass human intelligence is an unresolved technical challenge. While it is potentially solvable, the rapid pace of AI development could lead to catastrophic failures if not managed properly.
Happy weekend!